The biggest fear school officials have about closing Clover Valley Elementary School is that enrollment will start to increase after several years of steady decline.

Citizens want school officials to be confident that closing the school won’t result in overcrowding in other schools throughout the district.

“Be sure that you can justify the emotional wrenching you are causing the Clover Valley Elementary staff and community to experience,” said Peter Szalai, president of the Oak Harbor Education Association. “Will you save $550,000 each year? Or will that number shift, like the morning tide to recede to other less compelling savings?”

Szalai said during Monday night’s Oak Harbor School Board meeting that the Oak Harbor Education Association supports the closure of Clover Valley Elementary. But support is conditioned upon the savings be used to reduce cuts in other areas of the district. He didn’t dispute the fact the school district has lost 500 students over the past several years.

The reduced enrollment, along with depleted fund reserves, lower federal Impact Aid payments, and increased employee costs have caused officials to project a $3.5 million shortfall to the upcoming 2007-2008 school year budget. Closing the elementary school will save the school district approximately $540,000 next year.

Szalai did question some of the school district’s figures, however. He wanted to know why, after years of increased Impact Aid payments, the district is bracing for an $800,000 reduction. No immediate answer was given.

If Clover Valley is closed, Szalai said he didn’t want to see the school reopen in a couple of years because the district didn’t accurately predict enrollment.

Oak Harbor resident Scott Hornung also questioned the numbers officials used to come up with the proposal to close an elementary school.

“I’m concerned with the tendency to overstate your case across the board,” Hornung said.

He said the school district should look at the current birthrate, which is increasing, and consider that in the decision to close the school, and also consider how the decision will impact the entire district.

“You need to make sure these savings are worth the other factors you are considering,” Hornung said.

The birthrate doesn’t necessarily translate to students attending Oak Harbor schools.

Schulte said the school district used to continuously track the birth rate until officials discovered that it was a useless tool for estimating enrollment.

By the time students enter school, officials have found, numbers range from 60 more to 70 fewer than the birthrate suggests. Schulte said the birthrate alone provides too great a margin of error to accurately predict enrollment.

Oak Harbor’s mobile military community makes predictions even harder.

“Predicting enrollment, particularly in Oak Harbor, is a notoriously difficult thing,” Schulte said.

Kaelan Anderson, OHEA representative at Clover Valley, said if the school closes plans should be finalized as soon as possible. She also cautioned the board to acknowledge parents’ concerns and to not overload the remaining elementary schools.

School board member Kathy Jones questioned class size should the school close.

If that happens, Schulte responded, there would still be approximately 117 vacant student spaces next year in the remaining elementary schools, assuming projections hold. The other factor that could affect class size is the number of teachers the school district can afford to hire.

Board President Gary Wallin asked if Clover Valley’s closure would be permanent.

Schulte said it would cost a lot to reopen the school after it’s closed. In addition to moving expenses, the school district would have to hire new staff and buy new materials should that occur. However, plans are to use the building for other school purposes.

The Oak Harbor School Board did approve the first reading of a new policy outlining the policy on closing a facility.

The next step toward closing Clover Valley occurs Tuesday, Feb. 20, when the board holds a formal public hearing at 6:30 p.m. at the district’s Administrative Service Center. Prior to that, the board will hold a meeting, beginning at 5:30 p.m., to review designs for the Oak Harbor High School renovation.